Risk Based Inspections : Probability of Rapid Deterioration, Damage or Failure Score

The probability of rapid deterioration, damage or failure is a function of the following:

  • Current condition of a structure and/or element of a structure, i.e. the condition of the structure and/or element of the structure at the last recorded General or Principal Inspection.
  • Rate of deterioration, which is dependent on the structure specific characteristics and the severity of exposure to external influences.
  • Potential failure mode, e.g. brittle or ductile failure.
  • Inspectability, i.e. the ability to adequately inspect all parts of the structure
  • Principal Inspection Interval, e.g. time-based every 6 years or risk based decreased/increased interval
The probability of rapid deterioration, damage or failure score is calculated using the equation below:

PrddfS = (CCS + RoDS + FMS + IS) x FPII       but not < 1 or > 100

Where     PrddfS = Probability of rapid deterioration, damage or failure score

              CCS = Current Condition Score for the entire structure and/or the critical element, whichever has a lower Condition Performance Indicator (CPI)

              RoDS = Rate of Deterioration Score

              FMS = Potential Failure Mode Score

              IS = Inspectability Score

              FPII = Principal Inspection Interval adjustment factor